SUGAR, SUGAR A QUESTION This September Alan Sugar introduced the Amstrad PC-1512; an IBM PC compatible computer, with prices starting at #399 plus VAT. It has more features than an IBM PC, yet costs less than an HP-71. Meanwhile HP have withdrawn the HP-75 and introduced a new range of calculators starting with a BUISSNESS model ! Are HP losing interest in the market for handheld technical computers, and will we all end up using cheap desktop computers instead? (HP have introduced the new Portable Plus and "RISC architecture" computers, but this has little bearing on the handheld computer market.) This article deals with the question - who will still buy HP handhelds and support our club? THE PC-1512 Quite simply, the PC-1512 is an IBM PC clone which gives more, for less, and from a well-established company. It was IBM's PC (Personal Computer) that lured business users to desk-top computers in a big way, so most business programs for desktops are written to run on the IBM PC and computers which work like it. Other companies that make business desktops have to go one of three ways. They can stay different from IBM and hope to remain in the market because of their special features. They can make computers which run programs written for the IBM, but which have extra features that make them worth buying instead of an IBM (the HP Vectra is an example). Or they can make "IBM compatible" computers which run IBM programs but cost less. Many companies combine the second and third options - Sugar has done it exceptionally well. At present, the Amstrads are still rare, and a few have broken down, but this is normal for a new model, and Sugar is set to bring many new customers into the clone market. Not everyone will find the Amstrad exciting, since other PC clones already exist: the point is that in most countries you can now buy a desktop computer for less than the price of a handheld. Yet this desktop will be vastly more powerful and able to run thousands of programs that can be bought "off the shelf". Some are very expensive, but there exist cheaper alternatives and free "public domain" programs. If current owners of handhelds go over to desktops, then clubs like HPCC must find new members or a new role. HP HANDHELDS An HP-41CX plus Card Reader and a couple of modules can cost more than the Amstrad. An HP-71B on its own, with no accessories, costs a bit more than the cheapest version of the Amstrad (which comes with a disk drive, a monitor, a "mouse" and some software). An HP75D costs far more. (HP could cut their prices, but that's a subject for a different article.) People will only pay the HP prices if the handheld computers give something that a cheap desktop cannot provide. So who will buy HP handhelds? USERS OF HANDHELDS Let's try to describe the different groups of users of HP handhelds and consider if they will still use them. 1. The first people to use HP handhelds were HP engineers: the HP-35, HP's first commercial handheld, was originally designed for use within HP. As new models are introduced, users at HP test them out; a handheld made by engineers for engineers seems likely to be at least as successful as one designed purely on marketing grounds, but HP seem to be driven more by the marketing people these days. Some wonderful machines never reach the outside market; some branches of HP are quite oblivious of the availability of HP's products. (One HP factory in the UK is reputed to have bought handheld computers from Husky because they did not realise that the HP-71B was available to do the same job.) It is likely that HP engineers will carry on using HP products, but will the products used by the engineers be the same as the products offered to the public? 2. The next group of people who used HP handhelds were the customers who bought HP-35s for use as "electonic slide-rules". Handheld calculators were already available in the mid-1970s, but the HP-35 was a new idea. People who had had to do their calculations with slide rules, tables, and large pieces of paper rushed to buy 35s instead. Many stayed with HP and went up through the 45, 65, 67 and 41. Some stayed with HP until desktops became cheaper than handhelds. Others only needed calculators with scientific or engineering functions and abandoned HP in favour of later models from TI, Sharp or Casio which were cheaper than the 35, yet had more features. Some still use HPs. 3. A third group were those who had to use computers. Until the advent of the handhelds they had used mainframe computers, often having to wait a long time before they could submit their job and see the results. Many of these people found it more satisfying to get a personal computer in the form of a calculator, particularly when the programmable calculators became available. They preferred to use a calculator which worked more slowly than a computer, but was available now, even if its use involved repetitive pushing of keys. These were the early users who looked for efficient keystroke sequences, read Ball's book of algorithms and were delighted with the freedom given by a "computer" which they could afford (just about) to keep for their own personal work. Many bought an HP because at the time it was the only "computer" they could afford; they have now gone on to the desktops, or to Sharp's and Casio's cheap BASIC-language pocket computers. 4. A fourth group were those who really needed the freedom of a portable computer. They had to do calculations on a site, out at sea, or down a mine. Previously they had been obliged to use a slide rule, or return to a computer, or ring the computer centre, whenever they needed a new computation. They had happily replaced their slipstick (slide rule) or telephone with a calculator and would not go back to the old ways. They needed a rugged and powerful calculator to take with them. Some now have a desktop in their site office or in their cabin, or use a TI, but many still use HP products; maybe a series 10 calculator, maybe a 41, and just maybe an HP-71 or 75. 5. A fifth group came to the handhelds more recently, when it became possible to take readings, control instruments or collect data with a handheld computer. A 41 with IL, printer, and a thermocouple may seem to be dear - but can be taken to a site where measurements were not previously possible, or needed a setup costing ten times as much. These people rarely have much alternative to HP's portable solution. A Psion Organiser with optical wand may be cheaper if you need to scan barcodes in a shop, but mostly a 41 or 71 cost less than custom- designed data collection systems. Later on, the data can be sent to a desktop computer via HP-IL or RS-232C - HP now sell an IL card for IBM PCs or clones, and recently introduced new software for better communication between a PC with IL and other HP-IL equipment. This group should stay with HP handhelds and their numbers should grow unless HP abandon HP-IL. An alternative way to group users is by size: corporate users who buy from HP in bulk, smaller companies, or individual customers. Most members of user clubs are individuals who buy HP equipment for their own use. This can limit our view of HP's activities - for example HP are happy with their sale of over 5,000 HP-71s to a large organisation in the UK. Certainly they would like to sell more, but not by changing their pricing policy or spending more on advertising. We don't see it that way - we would like to see ads so people learn of the 71, buy it, and join our club. Companies such as Casio work differently; they advertise heavily and sell cheaply, which brings more sales but less customer loyalty. Yet another way to group customers is by occupation. HP sell more of the HP-12C and HP-41 than other calculators: the 12C goes mostly to businessmen and the largest number of 41s is bought by students at technical colleges in the U.S. Both groups need portable calculators and both are worth encouraging. Technical students become engineers and will buy HP equipment and computers if they like the calculators. Businessmen need calculators that they can understand and use on the spot; they too may buy computers from HP if they like the calculators. As an engineering company, HP traditionally had more interest in technical student sales , but the 12C sells well; HP obviously felt it worth introducing their new range beginning with the business model, the HP-18C, first. Very few businessmen join the user clubs, let us hope that a student technical model will be introduced too; at least some students do join the clubs, even though not as many as we would like. If we consider the groups described, it seems likely that HP handhelds will continue to sell to users in large organisations, to business users and technical students. If we use the first classification then handhelds will sell to people who need a genuinely handheld computer, and to people who need portable data capture devices. Most of the business users, technical students, and users in large organisations will continue to treat their handhelds as tools, and will not join clubs. They are like people who use a car as a tool to move around - they see no reason to join a car club. The people who need a truly portable device will want to get as much from it as they can, and are more likely to join a club. This applies specially to people who want to interface their handheld to a desktop computer. Often they have questions that HP cannot or will not answer, particularly outside the U.S. - our clubs must try to contact these people and get them to join. The problem is how to tell them about the clubs - the best solution is for HP to tell them about us, but will they? THE FASCINATION OF HANDHELD COMPUTERS In each of the groups described there will be a few souls who become fascinated with their handheld computer. This is to be expected - humans are natural tool- users and a hand-held tool is easily related to. These are the individuals who buy new HP handhelds just because they are "nice" in the original meaning of the word - small, neat, precise. These are the individuals who try to learn more about their handheld computers, who try to do more with them. These are the individuals who jump at the chance to join a club of like-minded souls; if once they learn of the existence of such a club. I know many HPCC members are like this, but not all; some are in business only to use, sell or program the handhelds. Nevertheless, clubs are mostly run by people who not only make use of the handhelds but are also fascinated by them. If the clubs are to survive, they must find those users who are fascinated by the handhelds. A SWEET FUTURE? So, to survive, the clubs need more members who use HP's handhelds and in ___ particular more of those users who are fascinated by the handhelds; the kind of people who are already opening up their HP-18Cs and trying to replace the 1.2K memory with 64K. More users can be found among the groups listed above who continue to use the handhelds, and among the future users of new HP machines. How many there will be of the latter depends on the prices and models of HP handhelds to come - one or more technical versions of the 18C, an updated 41, maybe even a new series 70 model? Product reviews in DATAFILE will reflect such questions. Equally, our future depends on the clubs' ability to reach the users, new and old, and provide what they want; we must never forget those users who treat their HP as a calculator, and join a club to learn more about it. The group I have most hopes of are the people who want to interface their handheld with a desktop. Now that cheap PC clones are available, people will be able to afford a clone to use at home and an HP handheld to carry around all, for what an IBM PC used to cost on its own. Members of the U.S. clubs and of PPC Paris are already developing skills at hardware and software interfacing and at using desktops to develop HP-71 programs. Let us try to keep up and to find these new members. Maybe Sugar's new machine will, after all, lead to a sweet future for the clubs. Wlodek Mier Jedrzejowicz